The Autism Tsunami: Why the Numbers for SEND Are Exploding

In the last post, we discussed the rising cost of placements; now, we must ask: why is the demand so high? The education system is currently overwhelmed by a tsunami of need. This is not only a funding problem. It is a societal shift in identification and diagnosis.

The Staggering Statistics of Growth

To understand where the growth is coming from, we must look at the four primary areas of need used for categorising SEND:

• Communication and Interaction (C&I): Includes Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).
• Cognition and Learning (C&L): Includes Specific Learning Difficulties (SpLD) and Moderate, Severe, or Profound Learning Difficulties.
• Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH): Includes anxiety, depression, and behaviour linked to underlying mental health conditions.
• Sensory and/or Physical Needs: Includes visual/hearing impairment, and physical disabilities.

Autism: The Leading Category

The single most significant factor driving the doubling of EHC Plans is Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The number of children with an EHC Plan for Autism has almost tripled since 2015, now accounting for a staggering 40% of the total increase in EHC Plans.

This huge increase reflects several factors:

• Increased Awareness: Better understanding of how ASD presents, particularly in girls and those who mask their difficulties.
• Broadening Criteria: A move towards more inclusive diagnostic criteria over time.
• The Systemic Incentive: Diagnosis is often the key that unlocks statutory EHC support, creating an incentive for parents to seek formal assessment.

The Broken Assessment Pathway

The system for assessing needs is multi-staged. It starts with SEN Support; identification and provision within the mainstream school budget. If that fails, the child proceeds to an EHC Needs Assessment, a multi-agency process culminating in an EHC Plan.

The assessment for the underlying diagnosis (e.g., ASD, ADHD) is usually carried out by a multi-disciplinary team in a clinic (e.g., a Paediatrician, Speech & Language Therapist, and sometimes an Educational Psychologist).

The Assessment Bottleneck: The public system has failed to scale up to meet the diagnostic demand. Wait times can stretch from 18 months to four years.

What is required for assessors to be regulated? Professionals who provide these key diagnostic reports must be regulated by their respective bodies:

• Paediatricians/Clinicians: Regulated by the General Medical Council (GMC).
• Educational Psychologists: Regulated by the Health and Care Professions Council (HCPC).
• Specialist Teacher Assessors: Regulated by the SpLD Assessment Standards Committee (SASC).

The government must commit to a massive, long-term funding injection into training specialists and providing competitive salaries to retain these specialists in the public sector.

Without fixing this diagnostic pipeline, the school system will continue to fail to support the number of children whose needs are identified, but for whom statutory support is delayed.

Call to Action

The explosion in diagnosis numbers is a testament to our growing understanding and acceptance of neurodiversity. If you are awaiting a diagnosis for your child, focus on implementing accommodations and strategies now based on their observed needs (sensory, communication, or emotional), without waiting for the official label.